A year ago we had an election and, to their own surprise and the embarrassment of polling organisations, the Tories were elected by a slim majority. A few months later - the reasons for the timing are obscure - David Cameron decided to try and 'heal' the long-running underlying rift in the Tory party between those who believed in the EU and those that did not (John Major's 'Bastards'). He announced a referendum.
The campaign
In the first of his betrayals, Boris Johnson opted for 'Leave' and became its de facto leader, 'ably' supported by Michael Gove and Nigel Farage. From there things could only go downhill.
The campaign shocked, repelled and bored the country. Both sides were accused of launching personalised attacks. Both sides were accused of exaggeration. To every fact produced by Remain, Leave simply said 'Project Fear' and responded with fear campaigns of their own: that millions of Turks were about to 'invade our shores'. The figure of £350m per week was universally decried and yet remained central to Leave's campaign. 'Migration' took a poisonously central place in the narrative.
The Murdoch and Dacre press were solidly behind Leave making it almost impossible for any alternative view to get into the newspapers. The broadcast media did what they could but pride got the better of the protagonists and the leaders of the two sides never appeared in the same studio at the same time. Campaign leaders who did go into studios generally failed to articulate coherent visions on what the country might look like in the future and were harangued with details by audiences with deeply entrenched reasons for their viewpoints, often built on single issues.
The three lowest moments were probably:
- When Michael Gove dismissed all the 'warnings' of the multitude of companies, financial and scientific institutions, political friends and allies, think tanks and ... on the side of Remain with the idea that 'we have had enough of experts'. (So much for informed debate.)
- When George Osborne threatened (in his usual draculine way) an emergency budget immediately after the result with veiled threats of further cuts in everything
- When Nigel Farage appeared in front of a poster of poor refugees in Slovenia, artfully photo-shopped to removed any white faces. (It is surely hard to get lower than this.)
The issues
As far as anyone can tell the issues that came to the fore were things like:
- Sovereignty - the ability to take our own decisions and not be 'bossed around' by an 'unelected' Brussels, especially about ...
- Migration - which inevitably got confused between EU workers, refugees from places like Syria and economic migrants from the rest of the world
- Brussels bureaucrats - who were allegedly preventing us from doing all kinds of things we desperately wanted to do. When challenged for example, interviewees tended to get temporary amnesia or talked about straight bananas and the like. A telling statistic that the EU had no more civil servants than the city of Birmingham was conveniently over-looked
- The effects of globalisation - which allowed people in places like London to continue to party and pay themselves eye-watering salaries and bonuses while the rest of the country stagnated
- Austerity - parts of the country believed that they were really suffering from the government's economic policies. This was not helped by ...
- A series of domestic failings which were actually caused by long-term failings of our own governments but which it was convenient to blame on the EU and migrants, such as:
- The price and availability of houses
- The difficulties in the NHS - a national treasure - and the problems getting an appointment with a doctor or dentist, the lack of worthwhile jobs in some areas of the country
- Education where children were unable to get into their 'first choice' schools
- Transport with roads reaching gridlock and over-full trains
- A lack of trust in politicians in general ... enhanced by the lack of effective opposition to hold to account a government which seemed to have an uncanny knack of shooting itself in the foot without help from others
The referendum came at just the wrong time given the problems the EU was having in dealing with an influx of refugees and economic migrants - caused, in part by our encouragement of regime-change throughout the Muslim world.
For those that could begin to understand economics, a land of milk and honey was promised if only we left the 'dead hand' of the EU ...
The outcome of the vote was a combination of shock, surprise and horror amongst Remainers and delight amongst Brexiteers. It only took a moment's thought to realise that the country was now irrevocably split into almost equal parts and that the wounds ran very deep and were very painful. The British 'first past the post' system had yielded a binary result - allegedly 'advisory' - on an issue of major long-term consequence that ensured that half the nation would be dissatisfied whatever happened next.
The vote had been split by:
- Age - Young ('it is our future') had voted to remain; Older people ('we have the experience of years') had voted to leave
- Education - people with degrees who perhaps had most to benefit from a globalised world had voted to remain; those with lower levels of education had tended to vote to leave
- Geography - with the notable exception of Scotland, the shires and post-industrial areas had been keenest on leaving the EU; cities had mostly voted to remain
David Cameron resigned on the spot, simultaneously accepting responsibility for the campaign loss, unable or unwilling to face the prospect of trying to unite the country to leave the EU - a policy in which he did not believe - and checkmating Boris Johnson and the Leave campaign who now faced the poison pill of trying to heal a rift which was not simply Tory-deep but nation-deep and bleeding profusely. Conveniently, this bought time for things to cool down a bit and prevented hasty letters being sent to the EU.
George Osborne confirmed that an emergency budget would not be needed just yet and took time out to drop his manifesto commitment to get spending under control within the lifetime of the Parliament (Well, it was a 'good time for bad news').
Within days, Labour was also in freefall with Jeremy Corbyn being blamed for having been half-hearted in his support for the Remain campaign and for not showing sufficient leadership to win the general election that appeared to be looming well before the deadline of 2020. His shadow cabinet left the room one by one.
Within days, Labour was also in freefall with Jeremy Corbyn being blamed for having been half-hearted in his support for the Remain campaign and for not showing sufficient leadership to win the general election that appeared to be looming well before the deadline of 2020. His shadow cabinet left the room one by one.
Boris Johnson and and Michael Gove were having their own night of the long knives, fatally wounding each others' leadership ambitions. It is barely believable that neither of the two leaders of the campaign that had just 'won' a referendum was a credible candidate to fill the vacuum left by Cameron's resignation. It turned out that they simply had not expected to win. Supporters looked around for a heavyweight and experienced Brexiteer to take over.
To make matters worse, it emerged that the Leave campaign had no plan for winning: no strategy for what the UK might look like after the vote. Their whole campaign had not been based on a plan but on a series of disconnected 'what ifs?' They had simply winged it, making it up as they went along. Westminster also had no plan.
A series of racists outbursts confirmed that Pandora's box had been opened and that many had misunderstood or mis-interpreted the meaning of the referendum, expecting 'foreigners' to be sent home immediately. Safety pins appeared on people's lapels.
A series of petitions and campaigns started on social media, demanding another referendum 'not based on lies this time'. A general election was suggested. Marches and vigils were planned. Conversations between (former) friends were reduced to 'You lost: get over it' and 'Do you realise what your lot have done?' Buyer's remorse was reported on both sides although to different degrees.
Social media was awash with 'I told you so' messages including videos of both Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom saying that leaving the Eu would be a disaster/bring economic chaos. The internet has a long memory.
Meanwhile, the Scots started licking their lips at the thought of another independence referendum which would lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom, Across the sea, Northern Ireland went into shock at the prospect of either building a border with the Republic of becoming a part of the republic and thus achieving what the barrel of the gun had failed to achieve over many years.
Up and down the country, people started studying their own ancestry to find a grandparent born in an EU country.
In the world outside Westminster, the world reacted as one might expect. Confidence collapsed. Billions was wiped off shares. Investment plans were put on hold. Britain (sic) became a laughing stock and EU countries' minister lined up to send dire warnings about how difficult any negotiations would be and that these negotiations could only start once the UK had signed Article 50 which would be irrevocable. We had one chance to get it right.
There had to be some good news. Wales did splendidly in the European Cup football - England's performance having been beneath contempt - and England's rugby team had a series win whitewash against Australia in Australia. For once such news did nothing for national confidence and harmony. It needed more than that.
Where next?
Things are moving so fast that any prediction will be out of date by the time you read this.
Within weeks we will have a new Prime Minister who will be elected by and from within the Tory Party and who will probably be a 'Remainer'.
Despite having backed Remain, that PM will probably think they have a new mandate to negotiate a way out of the EU, a policy they did not believe in any more than David Cameron. Where this fits with the manifesto submitted to the electorate one year ago, is anyone's guess. Political parties are quick to say 'it was in our manifesto' when it is convenient but leaving the EU was not. Does the 'advisory' result trump the manifesto? Do we need a new election to validate a new manifesto? Do we need a general election to endorse a new PM?
We have all become experts on the meaning and definition of 'democracy', twisting it to suit our particular views. Parliament is meant to be a representative democracy and to have the last word on whether we should leave the EU or not. A majority of MPs were for Remain but will they hold the line given the referendum result, or will they 'give in to the will of the majority'?
The new PM will also have the unenviable task of healing the wounds of the referendum and re-uniting the country. This will not be an easy job given the polarisation of the question and the narrowness of the result. Many Remainers are in complete denial/rejection: others are saying 'well we have to get on with it' but not sounding convinced.
One of the less pleasant ironies of the result will be that two groups who were the most enthusiastic supporters of Brexit are likely to suffer most from its implications. A government struggling to set up new trading arrangements with other countries is unlikely to have spare funds to pour into deprived areas of the UK. Cornwall can whistle for its £60m pa. Older people may yet find their pensions are raided as the economy suffers in the maelstrom of re-alignment.
The right wing government we are likely to get is equally unlikely to devolve any power away from Westminster or be the slightest bit concerned about those 'shirkers' in the shires. The benefits will remain at the centre.
And we still do not know what the plan is, or what it might cost. That might be a good start for a serious, mature debate about the benefits of going or staying.
And so ...
At the end of a 'quiet week in politics' we have had a referendum that was not strictly necessary, that has divided the nation into two warring factions, that has brought down the Prime Minister, that has seen the departure of two of the three leaders of the 'winning' campaign, that has opened deep sores in the usually delicate series of compromises - checks and balances - that holds a nation together.
So, let's get this right: in a referendum that we did not need, and following a campaign characterised by lies, untruths and mis-understandings, we have voted narrowly to leave the EU for reasons which we do not yet understand and for which there is no plan.
If we still want access to the single market for our goods and services which will mean that we will almost certainly have to:
To make matters worse, it emerged that the Leave campaign had no plan for winning: no strategy for what the UK might look like after the vote. Their whole campaign had not been based on a plan but on a series of disconnected 'what ifs?' They had simply winged it, making it up as they went along. Westminster also had no plan.
A series of racists outbursts confirmed that Pandora's box had been opened and that many had misunderstood or mis-interpreted the meaning of the referendum, expecting 'foreigners' to be sent home immediately. Safety pins appeared on people's lapels.
A series of petitions and campaigns started on social media, demanding another referendum 'not based on lies this time'. A general election was suggested. Marches and vigils were planned. Conversations between (former) friends were reduced to 'You lost: get over it' and 'Do you realise what your lot have done?' Buyer's remorse was reported on both sides although to different degrees.
Social media was awash with 'I told you so' messages including videos of both Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom saying that leaving the Eu would be a disaster/bring economic chaos. The internet has a long memory.
Meanwhile, the Scots started licking their lips at the thought of another independence referendum which would lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom, Across the sea, Northern Ireland went into shock at the prospect of either building a border with the Republic of becoming a part of the republic and thus achieving what the barrel of the gun had failed to achieve over many years.
Up and down the country, people started studying their own ancestry to find a grandparent born in an EU country.
In the world outside Westminster, the world reacted as one might expect. Confidence collapsed. Billions was wiped off shares. Investment plans were put on hold. Britain (sic) became a laughing stock and EU countries' minister lined up to send dire warnings about how difficult any negotiations would be and that these negotiations could only start once the UK had signed Article 50 which would be irrevocable. We had one chance to get it right.
There had to be some good news. Wales did splendidly in the European Cup football - England's performance having been beneath contempt - and England's rugby team had a series win whitewash against Australia in Australia. For once such news did nothing for national confidence and harmony. It needed more than that.
Where next?
Things are moving so fast that any prediction will be out of date by the time you read this.
Within weeks we will have a new Prime Minister who will be elected by and from within the Tory Party and who will probably be a 'Remainer'.
Despite having backed Remain, that PM will probably think they have a new mandate to negotiate a way out of the EU, a policy they did not believe in any more than David Cameron. Where this fits with the manifesto submitted to the electorate one year ago, is anyone's guess. Political parties are quick to say 'it was in our manifesto' when it is convenient but leaving the EU was not. Does the 'advisory' result trump the manifesto? Do we need a new election to validate a new manifesto? Do we need a general election to endorse a new PM?
We have all become experts on the meaning and definition of 'democracy', twisting it to suit our particular views. Parliament is meant to be a representative democracy and to have the last word on whether we should leave the EU or not. A majority of MPs were for Remain but will they hold the line given the referendum result, or will they 'give in to the will of the majority'?
The new PM will also have the unenviable task of healing the wounds of the referendum and re-uniting the country. This will not be an easy job given the polarisation of the question and the narrowness of the result. Many Remainers are in complete denial/rejection: others are saying 'well we have to get on with it' but not sounding convinced.
One of the less pleasant ironies of the result will be that two groups who were the most enthusiastic supporters of Brexit are likely to suffer most from its implications. A government struggling to set up new trading arrangements with other countries is unlikely to have spare funds to pour into deprived areas of the UK. Cornwall can whistle for its £60m pa. Older people may yet find their pensions are raided as the economy suffers in the maelstrom of re-alignment.
The right wing government we are likely to get is equally unlikely to devolve any power away from Westminster or be the slightest bit concerned about those 'shirkers' in the shires. The benefits will remain at the centre.
And we still do not know what the plan is, or what it might cost. That might be a good start for a serious, mature debate about the benefits of going or staying.
And so ...
At the end of a 'quiet week in politics' we have had a referendum that was not strictly necessary, that has divided the nation into two warring factions, that has brought down the Prime Minister, that has seen the departure of two of the three leaders of the 'winning' campaign, that has opened deep sores in the usually delicate series of compromises - checks and balances - that holds a nation together.
So, let's get this right: in a referendum that we did not need, and following a campaign characterised by lies, untruths and mis-understandings, we have voted narrowly to leave the EU for reasons which we do not yet understand and for which there is no plan.
If we still want access to the single market for our goods and services which will mean that we will almost certainly have to:
- Accept freedom of movement for EU citizens
- Accept EU regulations on our goods and services
- Have to pay something to the EU (which is likely to be more than we pay already)
- Have no say in anything the EU decides
If we do not want access to the EU single market then we will face all sorts of tariff barriers but, oh joy, will be able to trade with places like India who are queuing up to do business with us (What have we got that they want and are you telling me that it is better to send our goods and services half way around the world rather than the short distance to Europe?).
We will not have £350m a week to put into the NHS.
If we ever want to re-apply to join the EU then we will have to pay the full fee (excluding Maggie's famous rebate) which may make the £350m look realistic, and adopt the Euro.
If we ever want to re-apply to join the EU then we will have to pay the full fee (excluding Maggie's famous rebate) which may make the £350m look realistic, and adopt the Euro.
But, we will be able to re-capture sovereignty. Well actually, we have done that already. We have used our sovereignty wisely. It might be one almighty cock-up but at least it was a cock-up of our own making and not one we could simply blame on Europe.
Perhaps we should have listened to our friends after all.
Was it all worth it? Revolutions like to throw all the cards in the air. Only time will tell whether they will come down into a coherent and economically successful model or whether different power groups will hijack them as they fall.
